What has advanced the success of electric vehicles in the marketplace? The battery. What is restricting the growth of electric vehicle adaptation? The battery. The cost of consumer automotive battery packs have come down considerably over the last several years. The regulatory environment removed barriers to investment in the technology and private parties are getting on the train to electrification and funding the production of every type of rechargeable cell chemistry. The Inflation Reduction Act has offered to offset up to as much as 40% of the current cost per kWh of the cost of cells within the pack. The idea being, the subsidy will translate down to savings to the consumer who ironically provide the funding in the first place through taxation.
Renewable energy requires battery storage as well. There is not enough on-demand production of green energy and even conventional power plants are under capacity for peak demands from time to time. We need batteries to deliver both the kinetic energy for mobility and the potential energy for times of peak utility demand. Battery cell manufacturing is highly specialized to produce the quality of cells with the appropriate precision to deliver enough capacity for vehicle operation on a daily basis. Translation, this requires constant effort by manufacturers and suppliers to ensure high quality of raw materials and production process. The strength of the pack is dependent on the weakest cell within the pack. Actually it is dependent on the capability to accurately detect the weakest cell in the pack to ensure that none of the cells are stressed beyond their safe operating margins.
Roughly speaking with today's technology, charging up your vehicle to support your average daily commute is about equivalent to operating another air conditioner in your home. During peak hours of air conditioning use, power companies today struggle with the demand. They employ service interruptions that raise the temperature your air conditioning will activate and/or temporarily disable power to the air conditioning unit for small intervals of time.
Battery back-up is therefore required to smooth out the power supply between peak demand and peak usage periods. Current battery production is about 2.8 trillion watt hours annually.* Current energy production is about 4.2 trillion kilowatt hours**. I'm going to estimate that during peak demand today the combination of fossil fuel energy production and renewable energy production occasionally falls short 3-5%. If we replace those fossil fuel power plants with renewable energy the shortfall of power production to peak demand is double edged sword because we are putting more “mobile air conditioners” on the load increasing the peak demand and unable to produce the required green energy, while we are charging. So that says that maybe we need at least a battery back-up system in the neighborhood of 20-30%.
If we replace all oil consumption with electricity we need about another 4.2 trillion kilowatt hours of energy. So 20% of 8.4 trillion kilowatt hours means we need 1.68 trillion kilowatt hours of battery back-up which is about 600 times what was produced last year and 300 times more than what is projected for global production in 2030. And that is just to meet current U.S. energy demands. Bottom line, electrification begins and ends with the battery.
We can see the societal impact of electrification in the crude estimates above. If we focus only on the narrow scope of transportation; In order to grasp the importance of battery design we should understand that it is the basis for satisfying every desirable feature of the vehicle. Range, time to charge are the most obvious, but other attributes are impacted as well. Attributes critical to the success and acceptance of a vehicle but not generally advertised nor are the usually a part of the buyers acceptance criteria.
Things like ground clearance, step in height and seat comfort are experiences that the introduction of large battery packs have required vehicle designers to shift their attention. The details of the battery back construction play significant roles in the overall safety and performance.
Battery electric vehicles have substantially more mass and that influences the overall construction from a safety standpoint, being able to manage the dissipation of energy in a crash event as dictated by Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) changes conventional automotive design practices for front, side and rear structure. The uniformity of the battery cell space requirements means you have to package in whole cell increments. Batteries are blocks for which there is limited configuration that supports overall operation. People have said how inefficient ICE vehicles are as more than a third of the energy, “goes out the tailpipe”. In comparison for BEV a third of the energy goes into carrying around its own weight!
The battery pack design influences everything about the architecture of the vehicle from the floor height to the wheelbase to the seating. It has an outsized impact on the overall cost of the vehicle and will not soon be proportional to any historical norms. So far battery replacement is 2-5 times more costly than an engine replacement at end of life. Electrification begins and ends with the battery.
* https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/lithium-ion-battery-capacity-to-grow-steadily-to-2030
** https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php electric car